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Financial Snapshot For June 2004: Lackluster Performance
While the biotech stocks exhibited modest gains during the first quarter of 2004, they traded essentially flat during the second quarter. Between December 31, 2003 and March 31, 2004, the Amex Biotech Index gained 7.4%, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index, which dropped by about 0.5% over the same time period. In contrast, between March 31 and June 30, 2004, the Amex Biotech Index shed 0.8%, whereas the Comp gained 3%.
All in all, this has not been an especially impressive year for biotech stock performance – even though the sector has managed to do slightly better than the overall market. For the first six months of 2004, the Amex Biotech Index gained about 6.5% and the Comp rose by 2%.
However, the general market has done better over the last 12 months: Between June 27, 2003 and June 30, 2004, the Comp gained 26%, while the Amex Biotech Index rose by only 16%.
Still, we must remember that the 17 stocks contained in the Amex Biotech Index represent the sector’s top-tier companies – and our data show that 10 of these firms (about 60%) actually underperformed the group as a whole during the last 12 months.
On June 30, 2004, the average 12-month change in price for the 236 stocks tracked by Recombinant Capital and Signals was 29% and the median change was 19%. By contrast, the 17 stocks included in the Amex Index exhibited an average 12-month gain of 22% and a median gain of 10%. The 10 Index-based stocks that under-performed the group’s average change are all biotech heavyweights: Amgen Inc. (-16% over the 12-month period), Chiron Corp. (1%), Celera Genomics Group (10%), Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (-2%), Genzyme Corp. (10%), Gilead Sciences Inc. (19%), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (-7%), MedImmune Inc. (-35%), Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (-12%), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (-30%).
On the other hand, many of the smaller stocks in our universe are still performing nicely – and they’re doing as well as they were a year ago. At the end of the second quarter of 2003, the average 12-month change in stock price for the 253 stocks then in our universe was 33%. A year later, the stocks had gained 29% in value, on average.
June 2004 Stock Report
The June 2004 Stock Report, published by Recombinant Capital and Signals, includes detailed financial data on 236 publicly traded biotechnology stocks, based on their closing prices on June 30, 2004.
We have been tracking biotech stock performance since February 2000. To access the March 2004 Stock Report, click here. For the others -- February 2000 through December 2003 -- click here to go to Signals' Table Of Contents. [We did not publish Stock Reports for the June 2001 - September 2001 time frame.] Click on the year of interest; you will find all the Stock Reports listed under the Signals vs. Noise section. (The spreadsheets underlying these articles are quite large, and may take some time to download.)
We've classified the companies on the list into 17 separate categories, based largely on either technology or disease focus. These categories can be found in the table that follows, which provides a summary of the underlying data and the average values (the sum of all values divided by the number of values) for each. Because the average value tends to be distorted when there are extreme values in a set (as occurs in the biotech stocks as a group and even within groups), we've also calculated the median (mid-point) for each set of data and for the entire group. We believe that the median values reflect a more realistic financial profile for the biotech stocks.
If you wish to access the entire spreadsheet (HTML 110k), just click here. If you wish to access the section of the spreadsheet that concerns a specific category (i.e., cancer or gene therapy), click on that category in the summary table below.
|
Company
|
% 52 wk high on 6/30/04
|
% change from 6/27/03
|
Market cap ($M)
|
Liquidity, pro forma ($M)
|
Company valuation ($M)
|
Valuation/
employee ($M)
|
Burn rate, annualized ($M)
|
Survival index (yrs)
|
Cash/cash from IPO/share
|
|
1st
Generation
Genomics
Average:
Median:
|
72%
73%
|
27%
33%
|
$1,411
$481
|
$498
$320
|
$1,143
$392
|
$2.0
$1.0
|
($131)
($114)
|
3.4
3.2
|
2.9
2.8
|
|
Genomic
Supply
Average:
Median:
|
59%
54%
|
45%
38%
|
$328
$162
|
$59
$43
|
$287
$115
|
$1.4
$1.0
|
($30)
($19)
|
4.3
1.5
|
0.9
0.5
|
|
Genomic
Targets
Average:
Median:
|
68%
64%
|
36%
26%
|
$375
$280
|
$162
$109
|
$249
$128
|
$0.9
$0.8
|
($48)
($47)
|
2.9
2.0
|
0.6
0.5
|
|
Autoimmune
Average:
Median:
|
71%
71%
|
34%
19%
|
$711
$410
|
$157
$117
|
$639
$302
|
$4.6
$2.9
|
($73)
($34)
|
9.7
3.7
|
1.6
1.4
|
|
Cancer
Average:
Median:
|
60%
55%
|
22%
12%
|
$591
$240
|
$111
$63
|
$525
$171
|
$3.0
$1.9 |
($56)
($26)
|
2.8
1.9
|
2.4
1.0
|
|
Cardiovascular
Average:
Median:
|
63%
73%
|
19%
54%
|
$468
$323
|
$142
$93
|
$370
$201
|
$3.0
$1.8
|
($56)
($35)
|
3.5
2.6
|
1.2
1.0
|
|
Chemistry
Average:
Median:
|
63%
66%
|
37%
33%
|
$319
$228
|
$124
$74
|
$233
$119
|
$0.9
$0.8
|
($54)
($22)
|
2.2
1.3
|
1.0
1.0
|
|
CNS
Average:
Median:
|
66%
69%
|
21%
17%
|
$486
$184
|
$150
$57
|
$440
$163
|
$5.0
$2.3
|
($31)
($26)
|
2.3
1.7
|
1.3
0.9 |
|
Delivery
Average:
Median:
|
67%
68%
|
30%
22%
|
$717
$182
|
$133
$54
|
$699
$193
|
$2.2
$1.7
|
($52)
($25)
|
1.4
1.3
|
5.7
2.2
|
|
Diagnostic/Imaging
Average:
Median:
|
72%
76%
|
21%
25%
|
$560
$248
|
$57
$39
|
$513
$228
|
$1.7
$1.3
|
($10)
($7)
|
26.1
4.0
|
4.7
1.3
|
|
Gene
Therapy
Average:
Median:
|
60%
68%
|
17%
26%
|
$167
$93
|
$65
$31
|
$119
$66
|
$1.3
$1.1
|
($30)
($22)
|
1.8
1.4
|
0.5
0.5
|
|
Infection
Average:
Median:
|
59%
64%
|
21%
2%
|
$517
$181
|
$99
$58
|
$476
$139
|
$2.2
$1.6
|
($38)
($28)
|
2.6
1.9
|
1.4
0.8
|
|
Metabolic
Average:
Median:
|
60%
57%
|
49%
-16%
|
$442
$149
|
$99
$51
|
$393
$127
|
$3.6
$1.1
|
($59)
($31)
|
5.1
1.9
|
1.1
1.0
|
|
Other
Average:
Median:
|
89%
92%
|
NA
NA
|
$500
$217
|
$100
$62
|
$401
$146
|
$4.5
$4.1
|
($40)
($41)
|
3.0
2.1
|
1.4
1.3
|
|
Revenue-Driven
Average:
Median:
|
85%
82%
|
24%
19%
|
$30,695
$14,360
|
$1,751
$1,004
|
$30,302
$13,669
|
$5.6
$5.2
|
NA
NA
|
NA
NA
|
45.3
18.9
|
|
Screening
Average:
Median:
|
72%
73%
|
85%
53%
|
$727
$402
|
$190
$150
|
$612
$351
|
$10.4
$1.4
|
($51)
($33)
|
4.4
2.4
|
1.3
1.0
|
|
Wound
Average:
Median:
|
68%
72%
|
24%
38%
|
$122
$79
|
$9
$7
|
$114
$70
|
$1.2
$0.7
|
($7)
($1)
|
1.9
1.0
|
1.1
1.1
|
|
Grand
Average:
Median:
|
66%
67%
|
29%
19%
|
$1,286
$247
|
$161
$69
|
$1,211
$192
|
$2.8
$1.6
|
($47)
($30)
|
4.1
2.0
|
3.2
1.0
|
Footnotes to the table:
§ ST & LT Debt: Short-term and long-term debt.
§ Company valuation: Market cap + short-term and long-term debt, minus pro forma cash and cash equivalents.
§ Annualized burn rate: Net loss from the last available quarterly report, X4. Companies with net profit (instead of loss) are indicated as "na."
§ Survival index: Cash (plus cash equivalents) / Estimated burn rate.
§ Cash/cash from IPO/share: cash on cash return from IPO price = current stock price / IPO price per share (split-adjusted).
§ Price/share at IPO: IPO share price, adjusted for all subsequent splits.
§ Median: Middle value in a set of values.
§ The information contained in the June 2004 Stock Report has been obtained from public sources. Where information is not available, it is indicated as "na." Recombinant Capital cannot warrant the ultimate accuracy of the data. All data are subject to change.
§ Most of the accounting figures are from quarterly reports as of 12/03, with pro forma adjustments for more recent financings (including debt offerings).
Highlights From The June 2004 Stock Report:
§ Since our last report in March 2004, we’ve added the 21 companies that completed IPOs in 2004. (For a list of these companies, please refer to the Signals article, “IPO Monitor.”)
§ When analyzed as a group, we find that the stocks of these 21 newly public firms were trading slightly below their highest prices to date – with an average value of 79% and a median value of 82%. The members of the IPO Class of 2004 also sported an average market cap of $289 million and had an average valuation of $218 million.
§ On average, the 2004 IPOs exhibited a cash on cash return of 1.1 on June 30, 2004 – meaning the average trading price at the end of the second quarter was slightly higher than the IPO price. But 5 stocks have performed significantly better: Eyetech Pharmaceuticals Inc. (2.0), Santarus Inc. (1.6), Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (1.4), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. (1.3), and Memory Pharmaceuticals Corp. (1.3). For comparison, the average cash on cash return for the entire group of 236 companies was 3.2 on June 30, 2004 – meaning the average price for the stocks in our universe is more than 3 times the split-adjusted IPO price.
§ By category, the top groups in terms of one-year stock performance are Screening, Metabolic and Genomic Supply, which gained an average of 85%, 49% and 45%, respectively. Other groups that exhibited gains greater than the average for the entire universe include Chemistry (37%), Genomic Targets (36%) and Autoimmune (34%).
§ Market caps are better than they were 12 months ago: At the end of June 2003, the average market cap for the companies in our universe was $1,002 million and the median was $174 million. One year later, the average market cap had risen by 28% to $1,286 million and the median market cap for the entire group had gained 42% to $247 million.
§ On average, the companies in our universe also have a little more cash than they did a year ago: At the end of June 2003, companies had an average of $135 million in cash reserves. At the end of June 2004, those reserves had increased, on average, to $161 million.
§ However, the cash reserves aren’t as high as they were at the end of the first quarter of 2004, when companies had an average of $173 million on hand. Still, that’s enough to see most companies through for at least the next 2-3 years.
Satomi Degami, CFA, Recombinant Capital
Jennifer Van Brunt, Editor, Signals
originally published 07/07/2004 |