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Financial Snapshot For April 2003: Movin’ On Up
[Revised 6/10/03. Due to a technical glitch, some of the figures in the April spreadsheet were incorrect. We have revised the data accordingly, and the corrected spreadsheet is linked to this article. Editors]
It’s generally agreed that April was a darn good month on Wall Street: The coalitions forces’ rapid victory in Iraq early in the month apparently did wonders to ease investors’ fears and concerns. Optimism is returning, though there are still plenty of issues to fret over – most notably the state of the economy.
The Nasdaq Composite Index, which gained 5% in April, is up about 13% for the year. And the Nasdaq Biotech Index is doing better yet. In April, it rose by 7%, but importantly it gained 20% between Dec. 31, 2002 and May 2, 2003.
In fact, the biotech stocks have actually been improving since they bottomed out last summer. Between July 10, 2002 and May 2, 2003, the Nasdaq Biotech Index rose by 48% -- an especially impressive recovery when compared to the Comp, which gained 12% over the same time period.
Moreover, the biotech stocks are slowly approaching their year-ago levels. On April 25, 2003, the Biotech Index was down 14% from its value on April 26, 2002, in line with the Comp. This is a significant change from the beginning of this year: On January 31, 2003, the Biotech Index was down 40% from its year-ago level (while the Comp lost 32% over the 12-month period.)
Not all biotech stocks are doing so well, however. We must recall that the Nasdaq Biotech Index is comprised of the 71 largest and most actively traded biotech stocks – yet most others fall well below Nasdaq’s criteria for inclusion in the index. These stocks, which have been hit hard over the last several years, are still struggling mightily to regain their strength. And they’re making progress: On April 25, 2003, the average 12-month change in price for the 258 stocks tracked by Recombinant Capital and Signals was minus 26% and the median change was minus 34%. (At the end of March 2003, the average 12-month change in price was minus 46% and the median was minus 54%.)
April 2003 Stock Report
The April 2003 Stock Report, published by Recombinant Capital and Signals, includes detailed financial data on 258 publicly traded biotechnology stocks, based on their closing prices on April 25, 2003.
We have been tracking biotech stock performance since February 2000. To access the March 2003 Stock Report, click here. For the others -- February 2000 through February 2003 -- click here to go to Signals' Table Of Contents. [We did not publish Stock Reports for the June 2001 - September 2001 time frame.] Click on the year of interest; you will find all the Stock Reports listed under the Signals vs. Noise section. The spreadsheets underlying these articles are quite large, so please be patient while you download them.)
This month, we have made several changes to our list. We have added more than 30 companies, reclassified a number of companies that were already on the list and created a new category, “CRO/Service/Supply.”
We've classified the companies on the list into 19 separate categories, based largely on either technology or disease focus. These categories can be found in the table that follows, which provides a summary of the underlying data and the average values (the sum of all values divided by the number of values) for each. Because the average value tends to be distorted when there are extreme values in a set (as occurs in the biotech stocks as a group and even within groups), we've also calculated the median (mid-point) for each set of data and for the entire group. We believe that the median values reflect a more realistic financial profile for the biotech stocks.
If you wish to access the entire spreadsheet (HTML 140k), just click here (and remember, it's a large spreadsheet and takes time to download. Don't despair if your screen seems to remain forever blank after the download; it might take a minute or so for the spreadsheet to appear.) If you wish to access the section of the spreadsheet that concerns a specific category (i.e., cancer or gene therapy), click on that category in the summary table below.
|
Company
|
% 52 wk high on 4/25/03
|
% change from 4/30/02
|
Market cap ($M)
|
Cash & Mkt. Sec. ($M)
|
Tech value ($M)
|
LT Debt plus Convert.
|
Tech value/staff ($M)
|
Est. burn rate ($M)
|
Survival index (yrs)
|
Equity multiple
|
|
|
48%
53% |
-47%
-44% |
$1,029
$262 |
$666
$266 |
$363
$81 |
$155
$50 |
$0.2
$0.2 |
($182.8)
($97.0) |
3.4
3.2 |
0.8
0.9 |
|
|
45%
45% |
-46%
-42% |
$149
$63 |
$83
$34 |
$100
$14 |
$41
$1 |
$0.2
$0.1 |
($41.8)
($32.3) |
1.3
1.0 |
0.7
0.3 |
|
|
46%
43% |
-50%
-50% |
$209
$128 |
$118
$52 |
$64
$11 |
$18
$1 |
$0.2
$0.1 |
($45.6)
($34.9) |
2.7
1.4 |
0.5
0.5 |
|
|
67%
79% |
-22%
-16% |
$288
$54 |
$36
$7 |
$251
$33 |
$0
$0 |
$0.3
$0.3 |
($11.1)
($3.6) |
1.5
1.2 |
1.8
1.0 |
|
|
70%
76% |
-10%
0% |
$387
$161 |
$138
$37 |
$249
$48 |
$26
$0 |
$2.3
$2.4 |
($39.2)
($27.7) |
5.0
1.5 |
9.8
1.4 |
|
|
50%
51% |
-36%
-39% |
$238
$101 |
$87
$45 |
$162
$62 |
$13
$0 |
$1.0
$0.6 |
($42.3)
($28.2) |
4.0
1.7 |
0.8
0.7 |
|
|
66%
62% |
-6%
-35% |
$607
$77 |
$110
$47 |
$497
$30 |
$62
$3 |
$1.9
$0.5 |
($46.6)
($26.2) |
2.2
2.0 |
1.3
1.0 |
|
|
50%
49% |
-45%
-45% |
$238
$89 |
$134
$70 |
$104
$16 |
$33
$0 |
$0.4
$0.1 |
($30.4)
($13.7) |
5.9
4.0 |
1.0
0.7 |
|
|
60%
63% |
-19%
-23% |
$403
$87 |
$117
$54 |
$286
$53 |
$81
$0 |
$2.4
$1.0 |
($37.3)
($21.7) |
2.4
1.6 |
1.3
0.9 |
|
|
62%
73% |
-31%
-20% |
$598
$231 |
$189
$51 |
$441
$121 |
$71
$1 |
$0.3
$0.3 |
($17.3)
($12.1) |
28.3
2.1 |
3.1
1.0 |
|
|
51%
51% |
-22%
-35% |
$353
$127 |
$112
$19 |
$241
$102 |
$86
$1 |
$1.5
$0.9 |
($41.4)
($22.7) |
1.6
1.1 |
1.2
1.1 |
|
|
75%
74% |
0%
-16% |
$305
$169 |
$28
$17 |
$277
$131 |
$4
$0 |
$1.5
$1.1 |
($10.2)
($6.9) |
3.3
1.7 |
4.4
1.7 |
|
|
43%
43% |
-44%
-50% |
$73
$46 |
$75
$21 |
$1
$6 |
$3
$0 |
$0.1
$0.1 |
($29.0)
($22.8) |
2.3
1.0 |
0.4
0.3 |
|
|
55%
60% |
-22%
-23% |
$696
$86 |
$90
$31 |
$606
$45 |
$47
$0 |
$1.7
$0.7 |
($31.3)
($22.3) |
3.1
0.8 |
0.9
0.6 |
|
|
57%
52% |
-5%
-33% |
$418
$138 |
$64
$27 |
$354
$115 |
$2
$0 |
$4.2
$1.0 |
($49.4)
($12.1) |
1.7
1.4 |
3.8
1.0 |
|
|
63%
66% |
0%
-24% |
$147
$99 |
$31
$15 |
$116
$76 |
$4
$0 |
$1.7
$0.8 |
($23.2)
($12.6) |
1.4
0.9 |
1.1
1.0 |
|
|
87%
95% |
2%
1% |
$19,442
$8,081 |
$1,390
$908 |
$18,052
$7,423 |
$833
$506 |
$4.4
$2.9 |
NA
$1.0 |
NA
NA |
5.0
3.7 |
|
|
49%
42% |
-44%
-49% |
$264
$256 |
$142
$84 |
$122
$7 |
$55
$11 |
$0.5
$0.3 |
($55.7)
($31.2) |
2.6
1.9 |
0.7
0.7 |
|
|
58%
74% |
-21%
-16% |
$75
$53 |
$4
$4 |
$72
$47 |
$6
$1 |
$0.7
$0.5 |
($4.3)
($2.2) |
1.0
1.0 |
0.9
0.9 |
|
|
57%
57% |
-26%
-34% |
$823
$131 |
$136
$43 |
$710
$77 |
$55
$0 |
$1.3
$0.5 |
($38.6)
($26.2) |
3.1
1.6 |
1.9
0.8 |
Footnotes to the table:
§ Technology value: Market cap - cash (and cash equivalents)
§ LT debt plus convert.: Long-term debt plus convertible debt
§ Estimated burn rate: Net loss from the last available quarterly report, X4. Companies with net profit (instead of loss) are indicated as "na."
§ Survival index: Cash (plus cash equivalents) / Estimated burn rate.
§ Equity multiple: Market cap / (common stock + preferred stock + additional paid-in capital).
§ Median: Middle value in a set of values
§ The information contained in the April 2003 Stock Report has been obtained from public sources. Where information is not available, it is indicated as "na." Recombinant Capital cannot warrant the ultimate accuracy of the data. All data are subject to change.
§ Most of the accounting figures are from quarterly reports as of 9/02, with some figures adjusted for additional cash obtained from subsequent public offerings (and then balanced to account for subsequent quarterly losses).
Highlights From The April 2003 Stock Report:
§ As mentioned above, we have made several changes to our list this month. We have added more than 30 companies, reclassified a number of companies that were already on the list and created a new category, “CRO/Service/Supply.” The total number of companies has increased from 224 to 258.
§ While realizing that these large-scale reclassifications and additions may lead to incompatibility with our historical records and possibly create biases, we have opted for more comprehensive coverage of the universe of publicly traded biotech stocks. We also felt it necessary to replace the stocks that have been delisted from Nasdaq and now trade on the OTC Bulletin Board (which we do not track) as well as those of companies that have declared bankruptcy.
§ Over the last month – between March 24, 2003 and April 25, 2003 -- the average and median price changes for these 258 companies increased by 22% and 11%, respectively. Twelve companies had one-month returns of greater than 100%, while 87 companies gained more than 20% in value. Conversely, 61 companies had negative one-month returns.
§ In the last month, the median market cap for the companies in our universe gained 28% -- from $102 million at the end of March to $131 million at the end of April. This positive change is one more indication that the situation is improving -- and that many of the smaller-cap companies are beginning to revive.
§ Still, as you might expect, the large-cap firms are leading the pack. At the end of April, the 7 companies in the revenue-driven group were trading, on average, at 87% of their 52-week highs.
§ Ten percent of the companies on our list, or 26 firms (including the 7 revenue-driven companies) have market caps that exceed $1 billion. That’s about the same number we saw at the end of March 2003. But only 4% (11/258) have market caps of $10 million or less – a vast improvement from last month, when 8% of the companies in our universe had such low valuations.
§ Nevertheless, a number of companies are still at risk for delisting or bankruptcy. Thirty-six companies, or 14%, are trading below cash (i.e., they have negative technology values) and 22% have a survival index of less than one year.
Satomi Degami, Research Manager, Recombinant Capital
Jennifer Van Brunt, Editor, Signals |